Despite signing nonstop executive orders since taking office, US President Donald Trump has not forgotten one crucial task: rearranging the portraits of past presidents in the Oval Office. At the time of his inauguration, the portrait of founding father and first President George Washington was displayed. Within a month, Trump had moved Washington's portrait to make way for a larger portrait of former President Reagan. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino commented: “Awesome! A portrait of the 40^th President of the United States – Ronald Reagan – is now hanging up in the Oval Office.”

Why revisit this minor detail? Because while Trump’s portrait hangs next to that of his idol Reagan, their philosophies and approaches have drifted far apart.

Consider the 1985 Plaza Accord. In the 1980s, facing massive trade deficits with Japan and West Germany – both rapidly recovering from World War II – President Reagan convened them alongside the UK and France at the Plaza Hotel in New York. The nations reached an agreement to devalue the U.S. dollar, nearly 8% against the West German mark and 14% against the yen.

Despite being a disciple of Reagan, Trump has adopted unilateral, coercive reciprocal tariffs. Reagan trusted an international trade order that operated through agreements, while Trump’s only strategy is tariffs. While trading partners have ostensibly complied with Trump’s demands, they have also been covertly pursuing their own survival strategies, diversifying their exports and strengthening trade agreements outside the U.S. China has seized the opportunity to steadily advance its own strategic agenda, stepping in and filling the resulting void.

Cover story author Wu Meng-tao quotes Reagan: “At first, when someone says, let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports, it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works – but only for a short time.”

The current economic figures have caused Trump to gloat, but some data have already begun to show declines. July’s non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, serving as the first warning signal. The University of Michigan’s August consumer confidence index started to reverse, albeit modestly, but it warrants continued attention. Regarding prices, several economists have noted that while the first half of the year remained relatively stable as manufacturers absorbed inventory and absorbed price differentials internally, the key figures to watch will be those at the end of this year and early next year.

Nobody wants the world to slide back into depression. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff bill, signed by President Hoover, became pivotal to the Great Depression. Earlier still, the 25^th President William “tariff king” McKinley triggered retaliation after imposing high tariffs, which led to the defeat of the Republican Party in the subsequent midterms.

However, Trump has a trait which may be an opportunity to avoid a crisis. Despite ridicule from all sides, if the signs are not right, the opponent is stronger than him, or the situation is unfavorable, he retreats without hesitation. Thus, “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO).

According to Forbes magazine, Trump reversed course 28 times just between April and the end of July. Recently, tariff negotiations with China were postponed for another 90 days. So perhaps TACO will also save America, while also benefiting the other countries affected by Trump’s tariffs.