Sometimes, US President Trump is like the nagging old man next door, muttering about why Biden has not stepped down yet, complaining that the water flow of his shower head is too weak, and the coastal wind turbines drive the whales crazy, leading to an increase in the number of suicide attempts.

But sometimes he seems full of ambition and strategy, “refusing to rule out the use of force” to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal. The former would allow the US to control the main route from the Atlantic Ocean to the Arctic, while the latter would give it control over the waterway across the American continent.

All of the above happened at a press conference before he took office, which read like a monologue. One sentence, he might say that “may have to do something” about the Panama Canal, and the next, he might say that the showerhead “goes drip, drip, drip.” The New York Times called this a "chaotic stream-of-consciousness," reminding people of his last term.

Love or hate Trump, he really is back. Before he took office, the news focus had shifted from Biden's White House to Trump's Mar-a-Lago. After he took office, his every move was watched by the world. Some have interpreted his unique “ambiguity” as a strategy, while others have said that any strategic considerations are entirely coincidental. But either way, international politics, economics, and the financial environment will undergo structural changes going forward.

Financial markets are the most sensitive out of these, reflecting views and perceptions of the future. The rising long-term bond rates have two interpretations. One is that people believe that inflation is returning, due mainly to Trump’s tariff wars; the other is pessimism about the US fiscal deficit. Trump plans to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is set to expire this year, adding further pressure to US finances.

Although the US stock market is still high, it is in a precarious situation, and bearish signals have started appearing, such as rising bond yields. Despite the illustrious speech by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, any market correction in AI this year will also be critical, and Taiwan will bear the brunt of any fallout – not to mention that Trump may stir up fires elsewhere in international politics.

For the financial industry, Trump will make 2025 an unpredictable year. His high degree of uncertainty, willingness to disrupt the existing international order, and contradictory policies related to finance have caused the economy to walk on along a tightrope. If you are not careful, or there is a gust of wind, you may fall. Of course, from an optimistic perspective, Trump's mercantilism may continue to motivate companies, and continued tax cuts may also give companies more cash for innovation and development, thereby paying more taxes and improving US finances.

Which path the US will take remains unclear, but what is certain is that the economy has entered a plateau. The scenery on the plateau may be beautiful, but the cliff edge lurks not far away.