To boost the U.S. economy and American industry, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed a tax reform plan that focuses on lowering both the corporate and individual income tax rates. Trump's plan also calls for simplifying the tax code.
The corporate income tax rate will decrease from 35% to 20%; some deductions will also be eliminated
Under Trump's plan, families will be able to deduct $24,700 from their tax bill compared to $12,700 now, while single people's deductions will rise from $6300 to $12700. But the individual exemption of $4050 will be eliminated, so some families with children will end up paying higher taxes. According to Slate Research, families with children whose annual income is $24,000 to $60,000 will end up paying higher taxes under Trump's plan.
Trump's tax plan would limit the maximum tax rate applied to the business income of small and family-owned businesses conducted as sole proprietorships, partnerships and S corporations to 25%. In fact, many such entities belong to the affluent, and serve as a means for them to evade the higher 39.6% rate on personal income. One firm that makes use of pass-through entities is the Trump Organization.
The Trump Administration says that lowering taxes will stimulate economic growth, forecasting 3-4% annual growth, which would be an improvement over the Obama years (2-3%). Yet many economists and other scholars doubt annual GDP growth will exceed 3%, because firms and individuals may choose to hold onto their savings, rather than spend them.
Further, the Trump administration says that its tax reform plan will help to keep more companies in the U.S. Meanwhile, lower taxes will benefit employees, increasing their wages and creating more job opportunities, the administration says. Yet this is far from a sure thing. For a long time now, growth in corporate earnings has exceeded wage growth. Job opportunities and wages increase when firms expand their operations or receive new funding.
To be sure, the world is well aware that some U.S.-based firms have high earnings and pay high taxes. The relocation of their corporate headquarters overseas remains a serious problem. Despite some attempts by the Obama administration to reverse this trend, such as by allowing interest accumulated on corporate debt to be deducted from the corporate income tax, U.S. firms continue to seek offshore tax havens for their headquarters. The Trump administration's bid to lower the corporate income tax reflects a renewed push to bring U.S. firms back onshore.
From 1963-1971, economic growth in the U.S. exceeded 5% a year. A key catalyst for this long-running economic expansion was President John F. Kennedy's tax-cut plan, passed in February 1964, which slashed income tax rates 20-30% across the board. When President Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, he soon encountered a serious recession. By lowering taxes, he was able to boost annual GDP growth to above 3% between 1983 and 1989.
It's important to note, however, that the U.S. economy did not grow strongly in the 1970s. It also fell into a shortly after Reagan left office. This shows that relying on slashing taxes to boost growth can only work in the short term. When growth slows, further reducing taxes will not help.
Currently, the U.S. economy is in the midst of a modest recovery. The IMF forecasts that annual GDP growth will be 2.2% this year and 2.3% next year. Overall, the global economy is growing. FactSet Research believes that consumption will rise worldwide - especially in China, Europe and Japan. Among the world's 15 largest economies, growth will be fastest in Chia and India, the IMF says.
In the IMF's view, while the U.S. economy is stable, the nation should focus on reducing its debt, developing infrastructure, and improving the skills of the American workforce. Should the U.S. choose to pursue policies that will result in short-term growth, the economy may grow faster for a two or three-year period, and the stock market will do well, but overall, the U.S. economy will end up in a more precarious situation.